Thursday, May 10, 2012

HOW DOES OBAMA GAIN HERE?

"I hate the h8ing h8ers!"

When it was announced that President Obama was going to have a special announcement yesterday on homosexual "marriage" I was certain he wouldn't come out directly in support of it. I figured he would give a sort of modified federalist position on the topic, saying he thought that should be left up to "the people." He wouldn't say "the states," because I don't think he really views states as having any authority; they're just regions that congressmen come from.

However he came out and specifically said he's all for homosexual "marriage." This came as a surprise to me for good reason. President Obama's reelection strategy has been to just write off white working men and focus on minorities and women. If he can win those, he can win, by a tight margin. To do so, he has to attract them to his side in large numbers.

Right now, hispanic voting registration is lower than its been in years, and blacks are pretty upset at the president as well. You can guess why, unemployment among American blacks is almost 50% and while many thought he'd pay for their car and mortgage, instead things have gotten significantly worse.

Now, President Obama can rely on the percentage of voting blacks to be around 90% in his favor, but what he can't rely on is them showing up to vote in very large numbers. And its an open secret, as I wrote about a few weeks ago, that blacks are significantly more socially conservative than the Democratic Party is. In North Carolina, blacks voted by a huge margin to support the marriage amendment. They voted the same way in California.

Hispanics are the same way, both they and blacks think very poorly of homosexuals and any such marriage isn't just weird but disgusting to them. Black preachers may basically preach socialism from the pulpit but when it comes to issues like this, they're as conservative as any Southern Baptist.

Now I have a theory that President Obama and the various hard left activists who regularly visit the White House and call him for conferences have set up fast response events to things that take place in the news: the Zimmerman/Martin case, for example. They're ready for specific events and have a reaction prepared, coordinated with activists and media contacts. The North Carolina vote was, I believe, another one of those prepared packages.

So out comes Biden to say his thing, then President Obama runs to a camera and talks about himself some more, mentioning homosexual "marriage." I suppose he figures its a win, because this might tip some independents his way, but then Romney had already come out with the same position long ago, so how this helps him isn't clear. Perhaps he's hoping for the left to smear Republicans in general and hurt Romney in the process by association, which would be a lie, but when has that stopped them in the past?

The problem here is that this may very likely have the result of suppressing black voter participation. They may want him to win reelection, but annoying them even further on the issue will push at least some, if not many, to just stay home. Many black voters have a tendency to do so anyway, as they've been told their whole lives that the system is totally stacked against them and voting does no good. White men rig it anyway, what's the point, everyone who wins is the same, on and on.

So how does Obama win in this? Not really in any way. It probably seems clever as all get out in staff meetings but ultimately there's not much win for him here. That would have been a Sista Soulja moment for him, and he could have gained some votes. Certainly he wouldn't lose any, even the people who claim they might not vote for Obama now will in November. They'd vote for Josef Mengele's bones to defeat a Republican. They are a sure thing.

Here's the only thing that really seems to have decided the matter for President Obama: a group of very wealthy homosexuals (and there are quite a few in Hollywood) were withholding cash to try to pressure the president into this position. Fundraising isn't great this time around for the president and he is relying on that mountain of cash to win over voters who are basically tired of him and want a new guy in the job. He figures he can buy votes if he has enough money, and his strategy probably relies on that cash.

So the president goes on TV, gives these homosexual money men what they want, and voila, the cash filled dump truck backs up to he White House:
Already, gay donors, mostly men, reportedly constitute 1 in 6 of Obama’s top fundraisers known as bundlers. And in the first 90 minutes after the news broke Wednesday, the campaign received $1 million in spontaneous contributions, a Democrat told BuzzFeed.
Spontaneous. Yeah. More like extortion money. Do this or you don't get paid, Mister President. I suspect President Obama would rather not endorse homosexual "marriage" but felt he had no choice. Overall its going to hurt him, I think, given 32 out of 32 states have had a referendum on the issue, and every single one, usually by a huge margin, votes for traditional marriage. Its just not a winner in America, even in states like California.

So that's what I think has gone on behind the scenes. And its probably all I'll write about the issue, because as important as I think it is (although its one of those wisdom things that is difficult to prove in tangible, specific pragmatic terms but in the long term will become painfully obvious), this time around the economy is more important.

All the focus on North Carolina and marriage is to distract from the economy, which is lousy and the president knows it. He cannot run on things getting better, they're worse than 4 years ago. He cannot run on success, he's failed. He suffers if people look at their wallet, so he's trying to get them to look at just about anything else, waving his arms around like Kermit the Frog announcing the Muppet Show.

Too bad. People feel the economy every single moment of their waking lives. They notice your distractions a few minutes on TV.

*UPDATE: Even Politico has an article noting that this probably cost President Obama several battleground states, such as Ohio and Florida - states he absolutely needs to win for reelection.

4 comments:

Eric said...

I was expecting Obama to come out in support of gay marriage sometime during the election, but I'm surprised he did it this early. His long time position of having an "evolving" position on gay marriage was clearly a signal that he was just waiting for a politically convenient time for it to become fully 'evolved'.

I think the political calculus here is that Obama was willing to trade a few black votes in hope of reigniting the youth vote that helped him so much in 2008 and has been pretty apathetic so far in this election cycle. To a lot of college-aged kids who see the economy as this big nebulous thing that is far away and beyond their control, gay marriage seems like an issue where they can exert some political muscle and plant a flag for their generation in the history books. And Obama is very good at exploiting that type of thing to his political advantage.

Who knows if it will actually play out that way, but you were asking how this is a win for Obama and that is how I see it.

Christopher Taylor said...

I am 46 years old so I'm kind of out of touch with the college scene but I don't get the impression that gay marriage is a big issue with kids. I think they're fine with it but don't feel real deeply about it one way or another. Could be wrong though.

What I do suspect is that whatever vague impression young people might have of the economy in principle they understand at the bottom line when the unemployment rate for college age kids is around 30%. In a sense, the occupy movement is not helping the president here, because it is focusing on how much it sucks today to be a college student or graduate.

Whether this will help him get college students or not I couldn't say but it seems unlikely.

Eric said...

"I don't get the impression that gay marriage is a big issue with kids."

I don't know... my facebook feed was lit up today with people under 30 years old praising Obama on this issue, and most of those youngsters are people from conservative Oklahoma, even from my small rural town in Oklahoma.

My facebook feed is admittedly not very scientific, but I tend to believe this is a pretty big deal to younger voters.

Christopher Taylor said...

Well it might be one of those "yay good move" things that people say but aren't real passionate about, too. Remember these guys were raised with almost total lockstep popular culture telling them they should think homosexuality is just great! So they can repeat the lines with the best of them.