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Tuesday, October 18, 2011

UPTICK

The economy is doing something interesting. Its really slow and really shaky, but most indicators are very slightly up. In the last two months, jobs, manufacturing, consumer confidence, spending, the GDP, and so on have very slightly increased. What I think is happening is that businesses and consumers are getting used to the situation as it stands, and while it stinks have to get on with their lives.

What does this mean in the long term? I don't know. I do know that if you track any recession you see little blips of upward movement, but unless they persist, they aren't a true recovery. And with the MIRV of Damocles hanging over all our heads by a rapidly rotting spider web, its hard to be very optimistic.

The bad news is that some other indicators are worse: inflation, for instance. And while some new jobs have been added, they aren't keeping up with a growing population: in other words, there's a net job loss overall.

3 Comments:

Blogger Philip said...

Essentially it's a "maintenance mode". Inventories get low, some items get in short supply and other items have to be replaced. Hence the small increases in hiring, etc.

Here in SoCal, people are buying new cars because their cars are wearing out and decent used cars on the market are older/higher mileage and almost as expensive as lower-end, new cars. It didn't help that a significant number of decent cars were turned over to 'cash for clunkers'. It's also that dealers have stock and are willing to make deals to make the sales-numbers.

5:58 PM, October 18, 2011  
Blogger John Davis said...

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6:14 AM, November 21, 2011  
Blogger Audrianna Andrew said...

Good jockeys will do well on good horses, but not on broken-down nags. Both Berkshire's textile business and Hochschild Kohn had able and honest people running them. The same Interim Management Provider employed in a business with good economic characteristics would have achieved fine records. But they were never going to make any progress while running in quicksand. I've said many times that when a management with a reputation for brilliance tackles a business with a reputation for bad economics, it is the reputation of the business that remains intact.

5:36 AM, November 24, 2011  

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