Wednesday, April 13, 2011


"The whole population would be on the move."

50 Million Displaced
The arctic will be completely free of ice in two years, at least in the summer. That's what we were told in 2007, at least. The following year, the ice grew at a record pace, erasing decades of melt, as the planet grew cooler. The ice continues to grow and thicken each year, and the prediction made four years ago looks worse and worse.

So now scientists have created a new model, and unveiled it at the European Geosciences Union. Richard Black reports at the BBC:
"In the past... we were just extrapolating into the future assuming that trends might persist as we've seen in recent times," said Dr Maslowski, who works at Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California.

"Now we're trying to be more systematic, and we've developed a regional Arctic climate model that's very similar to the global climate models participating in Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments," he told BBC News.

"We can run a fully coupled model for the past and present and see what our model will predict for the future in terms of the sea ice and the Arctic climate."

And one of the projections it comes out with is that the summer melt could lead to ice-free Arctic seas by 2016 - "plus or minus three years".
So maybe 2013 and maybe 2019, and maybe never. The world continues to cool rather than heat up as it seemed it might back in the 90s, but scientists haven't quite caught up yet. When there's no ice-free arctic in 2016 and 2019, will they change their model, will they decide that's not an issue, or will they come up with a new prediction even later in the future?

Speaking of predictions, Tim Blair looked back in the Guardian to 2005, just six years ago. Back then, we were told by David Adam:
Rising sea levels, desertification and shrinking freshwater supplies will create up to 50 million environmental refugees by the end of the decade, experts warn today. Janos Bogardi, director of the Institute for Environment and Human Security at the United Nations University in Bonn, said creeping environmental deterioration already displaced up to 10 million people a year, and the situation would get worse.
Actually, the scientist was less exact, saying this may happen but even that was absurdly wrong. Not only is it past the end of the decade without this taking place, but it wasn't even close. Nobody even considered fleeing any area because of climate disaster, let alone fifty million.

As Gavin Atkins notes, the areas that were considered the most at risk increased in population rather than decreasing. Its one thing to be ready for a possible, if remote, problem like the military in the US has been studying, but its another to publicize this as a certainty and build hysteria about something even its supporters aren't very confident about.

These guys are wrong more often than preachers predicting the second coming of Jesus, with far less reason. Its one thing to make guesses based on hope and faith, but another to cook books with absurdly failed models and make predictions that are almost entirely science free when you're a scientist. Every single one of the models predicting climate and weather has been 100% absolutely wrong. Every one of them. They can't even plug in the data from decades ago and get an accurate representation of what happened then.

After a while you'd figure someone would stand up and say "boys, I think we're doing something wrong."

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